Passenger Rail Service Doesn’t Add Up
The Roanoke Times and the local blogs have been abuzz lately with the idea of passenger rail service returning to Roanoke. Most of the arguments in favor of passenger rail are based on the notion that as a former railroad town, Roanoke is somehow deserving of this service. Unfortunately, businesses decisions aren’t based on who is deserving of service, but on who will support it and make it profitable. What I haven’t seen anywhere is an analysis of the cost of providing this service, and the number of passengers required to make it an economically feasible undertaking. I suspect that the numbers will not work in our favor.
The clamor for passenger rail service coincides with the rapid rise in gasoline prices. The argument that most people seem to be making is that with gas at $4.00 per gallon, the cost of driving to the Washington area is somehow prohibitive. Let’s break it down and compare the cost of driving with the cost of travel by rail.
The distance from downtown Roanoke to Washington DC is 240 miles. Let’s assume that you drive a reasonable car that gets 25 miles per gallon. Over the round trip, you will use 19.2 gallons of gasoline. If we could travel back in time a couple of years and were able to purchase our gas for $2.50 per gallon, the total gasoline cost for the trip would be $48.00. At today’s price of roughly $4.00 per gallon, the cost would be $76.80 for gasoline. How many people are really going to change their travel plans over a difference of $28.80?
A round trip Amtrak ticket from Lynchburg to Washington, DC costs $133.00. Let’s take a wild guess and assume we would have to pay an additional $45.00 for the trip from Roanoke to Lynchburg and back. In reality this number would need to be much higher, but as long as we’re dreaming, I will use $45.00 for now. That brings our total ticket price to $178.00. Don’t forget that we will probably have to pay for parking at the Roanoke station while we’re gone, and we will also have to pay for cabs and Metro fares while we’re in Washington. I’m going to be very generous here and say we can cover these costs for $22.00, bringing our total travel cost to $200.00.
Now let’s look at the convenience factor. As this guy has correctly pointed out, the Amtrak Crescent line from New York to New Orleans passes through Lynchburg heading north at 6:00 AM, and again heading south at 10:00 PM. In order to make this connection, passengers would need to arrive at the station in Roanoke at roughly 4:30 AM, and would return to Roanoke at approximately 11:30 PM. These are not exactly convenient travel times. The trip from Lynchburg to DC takes just a hair over 4 hours, with 4 intermediate stops.
Traveling by car, we can go the entire distance in the same 4 hours it takes to get from Lynchburg to DC, and we can come and go at the precise times of our choosing. We also control when and where we choose to stop along the way, and we don’t have to bother with cabs or public transportation when we arrive at our destination. The convenience factor alone is enough to make most people choose driving over rail travel.
In the interest of fairness, we do need to consider the cost of having our car with us in the city. Depending on where we choose to stay, we may or may not have to pay for parking, and there may be times when we choose Metro to get around once we’re there. I will be generous again and use the same $22.00 guess that I used earlier. This brings our driving cost to $98.80, versus $200.00 for travel by rail.
Before you start screaming, I recognize that there are many other costs associated with driving beyond gasoline, but the fact is most people never consider those costs when making travel decisions. They simply compare the cost of gas versus the cost of purchasing a ticket, and in this case the numbers don’t look good. Even if we use the newly updated IRS mileage allowance figure of 58.5 cents per mile, our total driving cost becomes $280.80. It’s higher than the rail cost, but not high enough to offset the convenience factor for most drivers. Plenty of people claim they would support passenger rail service in Roanoke, but when we take a closer look at the facts, we will probably still choose to drive.
I do not believe this
Fornetti,
Would you mind letting us know exactly what you don’t believe? Is there something wrong with my facts or reasoning, or just the conclusion?
Chris, I would have to object to your price comparison here. Today, May 19, 2009, I went online and a roundtrip ticket from Lynchburg to DC. in mid-June would be a total of $85. Parking is free at the Lynchburg train station. Let’s increase your assumption for Metro tickets in DC to $30, and that brings us to a grand total of $115.
Your biggest misstep is not calculating the total cost of auto maintenance. To say that “most people don’t think of that” is beside the point. Those are actual costs. So, to apply the 58.5 cents per mile from Lynchburg (about 180 miles), an auto trip comes to $105 each way. You might very well have to pay for parking at $20 per day, and let’s say Metro expenses come to $15. Even if you only pay for one day of parking, that will come to $245 — more than double the cost of the train.
That doesn’t factor in the traffic jam part of it. If you get stuck on I-66 for an hour, that’s wasted gas and time. The train will cut right through all that traffic congestion. Speaking of time, time on the train isn’t necessarily wasted as it is when you drive. You can do work or whatnot on the train.
Finally, the second train will be leaving Lynchburg sometime around 8 a.m., much better than the first train’s arrival time. So all in all, the train is superior if a single person is driving to DC.
Chris, you also don’t take into account that a traveler can WORK on the train, but not while driving. This alone significantly tips the scale in favor of the train.
Have you ever been to DC, Chris?? I grew up in Roanoke, and have lived in the DC metro area for about 18 years now.
Parking for more than 2 hours in a parking garage in DC will cost you $20.00. Do this just 3 times in one trip and you’re already up to $60.00. If you have to take a cab to/from someplace, that’s going to vary, of course, but generally a 10 -20 minute cab ride is anywhere from $10-$25. However, most people visiting DC are coming with friends, or to see friends, etc. Another factor here is travel time. Yes, you can get to Northern Virginia in about 3.5 hours by car. But to go all the way into DC?? You’re looking at 4.5 to 5 hours, depending on what’s under construction at the time, traffic volume, what time of week (weekday vs. weekend), time of day, whether it’s a holiday, delays due to accidents, etc. The traffic is definately “special”, and that alone could be all the diffence in the decision to take the train or drive yourself (this could be played up in marketing campaigns as well, which would further drive ridership).
But DC is only half the story. Many people using this service would not be coming to DC, rather, they would be traveling to/from Northern Virginia, and most likely using the Amtrak stop in Manassas, VA. Since they are coming for friends and/or family, cabs don’t really factor into the equation as the friends/family would most often provide the ride for them.
I think that if this service is instituded, it should not only run to Roanoke, but down to Blacksburg as well. There are a TON of kids from the DC metro area who go to school at Tech and Radford (let alone other colledges along the way in Lynchburg and Roanoke). A lot of users of this line would be students and their parents. I can totally see a coupel students hopping on the train with some of their friends to come to DC for the weekend–whether they are from the area, or just to sight-see and experience night life in the closest “big city”. It would be massively used during break periods as well. A “college town” line would see a ton of service, if given the chance and marketed correctly.
Taking the train isn’t as glamorous as it used to be (same for other modes of transportation as well), but it is still so CONVENIENT over driving. You can sleep, read a book, work, surf the net, chat, etc., all without burning your own gas, putting wear and tear on your car, worrying about fighting the 18 wheelers on I-81, or having your blood pressure go through the roof while you fight traffic.
On top of this, they wouldn’t necessarily have to run a line every day. They could start out with, say, twice a week. I think you would see substantial numbers on that type of line with a limited schedule like that.
Just a thought from a guy and his family who wishes they could “take the train” instead.
not to mention–train travel is more green than car travel and safer overall, and would free the highways up more (if train travel becomes as popular here as in Europe) for tractor trailers, making delivery times faster (which saves everyone money in the long run–just like if we all took reusable grocery bags with us, it would save on groceries because the stores don’t have to buy as many plastic bags).
Train travel needs to come to Roanoke for lots of reasons.